Who’s Winning In Iowa?
Who knows? Every poll says something different. Today two different polls were released, each with different results. Here’s an analysis from the AP:
2 Iowa Polls, 2 Different Results
Jan 1 01:23 PM US/Eastern
By The Associated PressTHE RACE: The presidential race for Democrats, Republicans in Iowa.
___THE NUMBERS - DEMOCRATS (CNN-Opinion Research Corp.)
Hillary Rodham Clinton, 33 percent
Barack Obama, 31 percent
John Edwards, 22 percent
THE NUMBERS - REPUBLICANS
Mitt Romney, 31 percent
Mike Huckabee, 28 percent
Fred Thompson, 13 percent
John McCain, 10 percent
Rudy Giuliani, 8 percent
Ron Paul, 8 percent
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OF INTEREST:
The poll shows a two-way race developing for the Democratic nomination in Iowa, with Clinton and Obama in a dead-heat and support for Edwards dropping. Previous polls in late December showed a tight three-way race between the three candidates. This poll suggests Democratic voters in Iowa see Clinton as the candidate who can win the general election and is most experienced while they say Obama is the most likable and most honest candidate. For Iowa’s GOP race, Romney and Huckabee remain virtually tied; McCain, Thompson and Giuliani still trail far behind.
The CNN-Opinion Research Corp. poll was conducted Dec. 26-30. It included telephone interviews with 373 Republicans likely to vote in the Iowa caucuses, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 5 percentage points; and 482 likely Democratic voters, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.5 points.
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COMPLETE RESULTS:
CNN: http://www.cnn.com
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THE RACE: The presidential race for Democrats, Republicans in Iowa.
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THE NUMBERS—DEMOCRATS: (The Des Moines Register)
Barack Obama, 32 percent
Hillary Rodham Clinton, 25 percent
John Edwards, 24 percent
Bill Richardson, 6 percent
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THE NUMBERS—REPUBLICANS:
Mike Huckabee, 32 percent
Mitt Romney, 26 percent
John McCain, 13 percent
Fred Thompson, 9 percent
Ron Paul, 9 percent
Rudy Giuliani, 5 percent
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OF INTEREST:
An influx of first-time caucus-goers, including political independents, helped Obama inch further ahead of Clinton. His support increased from 28 percent in a Des Moines Register poll in November, while Clinton’s remained flat, at 25 percent. Edwards’ performance was about the same as in last month’s survey. Obama’s lead also is the largest of any of the Democratic candidates in Register polling this year.
Among Republicans, the survey shows McCain overtaking Giuliani to move into third place, up from his fifth in the November survey. Giuliani, who has not campaigned as hard in Iowa as some of his rivals, has fallen to sixth place. McCain is enjoying a resurgence of sorts in his campaign, and is looking for a strong finish in Iowa to help him in next-up New Hampshire, where he also has gained support.
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The telephone poll for The Des Moines Register of 800 likely Democratic caucus-goers and 800 likely Republican caucus participants was conducted Dec. 27-30. The survey has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
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COMPLETE RESULTS: http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?categoryiowapoll07