The Shot!

Lindsey Graham might have $3 million cash-on-hand, but one must wonder if this will be enough of a financial advantage for him to overcome his dismal polling numbers in South Carolina. InsiderAdvantage released a poll today showing that Senator Graham is in serious trouble going into next year’s primary.

InsiderAdvantage believes the immigration bill is the main reason for Graham’s extremely low approval rating. Something that certainly could haunt him in next year’s Republican primary.

While Graham currently does not have an official challenger, conditions are ripe for an upset. Currently Sen. Graham is facing a disapproval rating of forty percent with an approval rating of only thirty-one percent, which is around the same approval level President Bush currently has nationally and roughly five points above former President Nixon during the Watergate scandal. These polling numbers are so troubling for Graham that it could prompt a serious challenger to enter the race.

Obviously Thomas Ravenel is out of contention, but other prominent political figures, particularly those who could self-fund a primary, would likely have to rethink their entry into this race after seeing these numbers. Although I think an “Oscar Lovelace” like challenger will certainly enter this race, we very well could see a Congressman, state Senator, or another highly elected official decide that this is their best opportunity to become a prestigious U.S. Senator.

Here is press release by InsiderAdvantage:    

Polls Spell Trouble for Graham and Lott Over Immigration Bill:

Both states oppose bill; both Senators have job disapprovals in the 40 percentile range
 
By Matt Towery, CEO InsiderAdvantage/Nationally Syndicated Columnist (Creators Syndicate) South Carolina Insider (6/22/07) Separate polls conducted in South Carolina and Mississippi this week by InsiderAdvantage/ Majority Opinion spell potential trouble for Lindsey Graham and Trent Lott for supporting the Bush immigration proposal.
 
South Carolina: Our telephone survey of 790 registered voters in South Carolina conducted June 18-19, weighted for age, race, gender and political affiliation (margin of error plus or minus 3 percent) asked the following:
 

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the President’s immigration bill currently under consideration in the US Senate?
 Approve: 21%
Disapprove: 63%
No opinion/don’t know: 16%
 
Q. What is your opinion of the job performance of US Senator Lindsey Graham?
Approve: 31%
Disapprove: 40%
No opinion/don’t know: 29%

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of Sen. Lindsey Graham’s efforts to reach consensus with his colleagues to pass the President’s immigration bill in the United States Senate?
Approve: 24%
Disapprove: 51%
No opinion/don’t know: 25%
 
Analysis: Ironically, the crosstabs show that Graham is in deeper trouble with Republicans in South Carolina than with Democrats. Unusually high undecideds could stem from the fact that U.S. Senators often do not enjoy as high or consistent a level of name identification as, say, governors. However, the third question about Graham’s role leads me to believe that there may be a question in the minds of those who have in the past supported the Senator. They aren’t sure what to make of his actions. Of note, South Carolina’s reaction to the immigration bill is perhaps the strongest in the South. However, every Southern state we have polled thus far finds a majority of voters opposed to the bill.
 
Mississippi: Our InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion telephone survey of 525 registered voters in Mississippi conducted June 2, weighted for age, race, gender, and political affiliation with a margin of error of +/- 4% asked the following:
 
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job performance of Gov. Haley Barbour?
Approve: 54%
Disapprove: 34%
No opinion/Don’t know: 12%
 
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job performance of US Senator Trent Lott?
Approve: 47%
Disapprove: 40%
No opinion/don’t know: 13%
 
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the President’s immigration bill currently under consideration in the US Senate?
Approve: 24%
Disapprove: 57%
No opinion/don’t know: 19%

Analysis: Sen. Lott may or may not be correct in blaming talk radio for the poor performance of the immigration bill in his state. However, 30 percent of Republican respondents to the poll said they disapprove of Lott’s job performance. That’s significant enough to suggest that the immigration bill and Lott’s comments have clearly eroded some of his GOP base. Barbour remains popular as governor. In recent years it has become increasingly difficult for incumbent governors to remain above 50 percent in a re-election year. Yet most go on to win re-election. Barbour’s strong showing bodes well for the likeable and savvy Mississippi Governor.

UPDATE: We have just learned that InsiderAdvantage used automated calls rather than live operators to conduct this poll. The reason this is so important is because it affects the overall integrity of the poll. While I believed this poll was an outlier to begin with, I’m now questioning the results even more than before. I think that it is very likely that Graham’s approval rating is probably still above his disapproval rating, but they are likely fairly close statistically. Another thing to take note of is the high number of undecideds at this point. Many of these people will likely fall into Graham’s approval column after $3 million worth of political advertising. It will be interesting to see whether any other polls backup the claims made by InsiderAdvantage over the next month. Regardless of the accuracy of this poll any challenger to Graham is certain to face an uphill battle.

This entry was posted on Friday, June 22nd, 2007 at 5:59 pm and is filed under The Chaser, Top Shelf News. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.