Expect House Losses
The South Carolina House Republican Caucus will lose seats this year.
How many will Majority Leader Jim Merrill see slip away? Right now it’s still too early to get a good grasp on the count, but we can give you two that we are pretty sure will go.
After only a year in the House, Representative Mick Mulvaney has decided to run for the Senate seat being vacated by Senator Greg Gregory. That leaves his House seat open, which was once held by Governor Jim Hodges. We don’t know this for certain, but we think the seat was Democrat since Reconstruction, that is until Mulvaney won it by only a hand full of votes. If Alston Devenney, who Mulvaney beat, were smart, he’d run for the seat again. He can win. That’s probably why Mulvaney is abandoning his seat.
Now, with population growth in the conservative Indian Land section of the area, the district is trending Republican, but its still primarily Democrat. If a good Dem steps up, Merrill will lose this seat.
Bill Cotty is no favorite of Mark Sanford’s ultra-conservative third-party groups, but they need to face the facts – Bill Cotty is the only Republican that can win that district. A hard core right winger, especially one for school choice, will lose the seat. Currently, Republican Sheri Few, who Cotty beat in the ’04 primary, and Anton Gunn, who Cotty beat in the ’04 general, have announced for the seat.
Few is a hard core conservative in a moderate district. Also, she is a big time school choicer in a district that loves their public schools.
Gunn nearly knocked off Cotty in ’04 and he’s African American in a high BVAP (Black Voting Age Population) district. Also, Gunn served as Barack Obama’s Political Director for much of ’07, which means he’s been busy putting together a strong grassroots organization. And we saw what that grassroots organization did two weeks ago.
Expect Gunn to win.
One more thing. We haven’t done a whole lot of research into Representative Ben Hagood’s district, but we do know that Democrats outnumbered Republicans in turnout last month and Hagood ain’t running again. A Democrat may be able to win this seat also, but we can’t say that for certain. We will look at the numbers and get back with you.
Hopefully Majority Leader Merrill can find a few pickups along the way to off set these losses.
February 9th, 2008 at 4:32 pm
Two years before Mulvaney ran for House Seat 45, Stanley Smith was the GOP candidate. He paid his filing fee, spent almost zero dollars on his campaign, and got 49%.
Smith spends zero, gets 49%. Mulvaney spends 100K, gets 51%. Demographics don’t explain why two points cost so much. Perhaps he just didn’t connect as well as Smith did?
Anyone with a decent campaign should be able to hold that seat.
Gunn barely got across the 40% line. If you take what Cotty and Kooky Re-Run got, the Dems can’t win that seat.
Unless the local GOP does something bone-headed and gives them the seat. Which they have been know to do in the past.
February 10th, 2008 at 4:21 pm
Always nice to hear from folks who know more about my district than I do. The long and the short of it is that District 45 is now slightly GOP in presidential years and slightly Dem in the off-cycles. (Over 2000 voters have moved in since the 06 election, with estimates at about 70% GOP.)
Mr. DeVenny is a good and qualified candidate. But demographics work against him in presidential years. My guess is that he is weighing a 2010 run, when he would be a favorite against a weak GOP incumbent. If he loses this time, it would be his third unsuccessful effort at the seat.
Bottom line: if Hillary is on the ticket, this is a GOP seat; if it is Barack, then it is a toss-up, coming down to the quality of the candidates.
PS: Thanks for the vote of confidence on me giving up the seat because I would have lost it anyway. Not sure where that came from.
February 10th, 2008 at 8:30 pm
Representative - thanks for the posting. Its always nice to hear from our elected officials.
As for knowing the district better than you - We never made that claim, but you won the district by just over 200 votes. That’s not a landslide. We don’t have to be representing that district to see its historical trends and statistics.
You’re welcome for the vote of confidence.
February 18th, 2008 at 6:31 pm
The GOP will hold the Mulvaney seat. It is made of conservative voters. The Cotty seat is a toss-up. It is a Republican seat, but it is a moderate Republican seat. Last election, third-party candidates chopped into the vote on both sides. Should be a tight race.
February 18th, 2008 at 6:32 pm
And the Hagood seat, it includes primarily Mt. Pleasant and Sullivan’s Island. I don’t think it is in play.
February 20th, 2008 at 2:08 pm
Stanley Smith got 47%, not 49%
February 28th, 2008 at 1:33 am
These guys at “The Shot” should be bragging on Mulvaney for winning the house in 06. I believe that was the only GOP pick-up in the state and they “managed” (I say that loosely) his campaign. Get over it, guys. He’s a better legislator that about anyone there. Lancaster is lucky to have him.