Attack on Shealy signals Campbell victory
Paul Campbell will beat Representative Shirley Hinson today in the race to replace the late Senator Bill Mescher.
How do we know?
We haven’t seen any poll numbers and besides the ramblings of a few disgruntled Hinson supporters, we have no real proof.
We’ve learned over the years that when a candidate gets truly desperate with no where else to turn, they attack the consultant. It’s a move that never works and signals the end of a losing campaign. It’s a move that tells us undeniably what their internal polls say.
Shealy always catches hell for his past troubles. Now that he has had two indicted statewide candidates in just six years, we are sure he will catch even more. We are also sure it won’t work.
Yesterday folks around Berkeley County received this attack piece comparing Paul Campbell to Charlie Sharpe and Thomas Ravenel. It says to “say ‘No’ to Rod Shealy’s crop of corrupt politicians.” We are pretty sure that the only person voters will be saying ‘No” to today is Shirley Hinson.
Speaking of consultants, we wonder what Majority Leader Jim Merrill, who is Shirley Hinson’s consultant, will say to the members of his caucus that use Rod Shealy. What will he say to Nathan Ballentine, Bill Sandifer, Ben Hagood, and Doc Dantzler?
Are they all part of a “crop of corrupt politicians?”
Absolutely not!
Shirley Hinson is a good State Representative who would make a great State Senator. Unfortunately for her, she got “out strategerized” in the primary and she will probably get “out strategerized” today.
July 3rd, 2007 at 12:55 pm
That this piece was sent out to the new media community (I got it too - but the sender didn’t want to respond to my questions) sounds a bit like the pot calling the kettle black to me.
I’ll probably use this in comparison to some of the deceptive attack pieces that Rod has used for some future discussion on my blog.
Typically the voters don’t care who runs whose races. This sort of “attack Rod” approach has been tried before, but I have yet to see where it has been effective.
Voters should be more concerned about the various powers that rest behind the throne - consultants, special interests, etc. But let’s face it, people are simply too busy living their lives to want to enter the tangled web that is contemporary South Carolina politics.
… and who can blame them?
July 3rd, 2007 at 2:15 pm
Earl - We were told by 2 different people that this was a mail piece. You are down there…was it not a mailer?
July 3rd, 2007 at 2:22 pm
Shot, not that I disgree with your analysis, and this often can be an internal sign of troubles. BUT in smaller races, such as a interim election for the Senate, I don’t know if this reasoning is as sound. Mainly for the fact that internal polls are rarely done in these kind of races based on lack of resources and time to do so as well as the fact that they would be wildly inaccurate due to the such a proportionately low voter turn out in such elections vs. the general or mid-term. Do you think, or have reason to believe Hinson did polling? Just curious
July 3rd, 2007 at 2:28 pm
Yeah, this was a mailer. It was sent out to all likely GOP voter households in the Senate District. I agree this was a bad move on Jimmy’s part.
When did the Ben Hunt thing happen? Like almost twenty year’s ago? I think that it is absolutely foolish to try to tag any consultant with the misfortunes of their clients that are serving in public office. Is it the job of the political consultant to serve as the public officials babysitter?
I mean that is like somebody trying to tar and feather Jim Hodges for what Kevin Geddings has done in North Carolina…the dog simply doesn’t hunt.
July 3rd, 2007 at 2:57 pm
Silence - good point. Perhaps we should not have said “internal polling” and instead said “ids.”
They could be polling. But for a special election run-off the day before the 4th (uber low turnout), they would be CRAZY not to be IDing the heck of of voters. That would give them the same feedback as a poll.
Don’t you think?
July 3rd, 2007 at 3:11 pm
I should have said that the mail piece was sent out to all GOP households to likely NOT vote for Campbell or were still undecided at this point (those who voted for farley in the first ballot). Sorry if I confused anybody.
July 3rd, 2007 at 3:33 pm
i spoke with merrill and some other folks with the hinson campaign this morning. merrill and rod are friends, and everyone told me merrill specifically told people not to do something like this.
back on topic: will this kind of thing work. special elections are strange. especially one like this, when most people are out-of-town.
July 3rd, 2007 at 3:43 pm
I live in Dorchester County, hence I don’t live in the district and therefore did not receive this mailing. It makes it difficult to speculate on the real origins of this.
All we have seen is one side of this, but we did not see the other side of the mailer. For all we know this could have been done by some third-party who went off half-cocked.
As we know, and I have talked about on my blog, some of these third-party attack efforts have not only been over-the-top, but they ended up hurting the candidates they were intended to help.
I responded to “therealshealy” who sent me this, asking to see the other side, with the postal information, and got no response.
July 3rd, 2007 at 3:54 pm
While this kind of thing usually is a sign of desperation and often backfires or has not effect - GreenJacket points out the best aphorism for this sort of thing. Special elections are funny beasts, and who knows how this will play.
Shot, you are correct, after posting my comment I did consider the fact that with the super lower turn out we can expect for this election proper Identification of those who will be voting could likely be more accurate than internal polls might be. Thanks for the analysis
July 3rd, 2007 at 4:22 pm
In hindsight, I agree. This doesn’t look like it has Jimmy’s fingerprints on it. And Jimmy and Rod worked damn well together to almost make Arthur Ravenel governor in 1994 with a little bit of help from Tim Kelly. Green Hornet you are 100% correct “true” friends don’t slam one another like that and Rod and Jimmy are true friends. That is why I was initially shocked when I saw the piece.
I have a sneeky suspcision of who may have sent it out. But at the end of the day. There is only one way to find out for sure. Get a copy of the mailpiece and look at the permit number and track it down to the mailhouse that mailed it out. Then find out who paid for the postage. If at the end of the day you are all that curious.
July 3rd, 2007 at 6:34 pm
In the last election cycle, the SCRG crowd did a lot of stuff intending to help candidates without asking and ended up doing more harm than good. One cannot discount their involvement.
It all goes back to the fact that whoever scanned this did not send the other side, which would have answered the question real quick. Nor have they responded to request from me and others to send the mailing side information or discus it further.
The lack of cooperation makes me wonder even more what this is all about.
July 4th, 2007 at 7:52 am
I was at Paul Campbell’s victory party tonight and the talk around the room was that Earl Capps was the one who put out the mail piece against him. Everyone at the party was talking about how Earl has tried to do similar things in the past to try to help people and how his efforts have backfired.
I don’t know if it is true or not. I am not throwing out any accusations but if the guy did do this, the boy is definitely facing a butt load of slander suits from shealy, ravenel and campbell ( not to mention some potential problems from hinson).
July 4th, 2007 at 2:31 pm
Rubik - I’d like to hear from you or anyone else who said that, because it would be an outright lie. The first thing I heard of this was when it arrived in my email.
In any event, I wouldn’t have endorsed such a tactic, because time and time again, the “Get Rod” tactic has been shown not to work.
I produced no direct mail for or against any candidate in that race, nor was I involved in the distribution of any of it.
I would invite you, or anyone else, who can tell me about these accusations to email me at earl@earlcapps.org or call me at 843-532-8439. I’d especially be interested in knowing the names of anyone who made these claims about me.
July 4th, 2007 at 5:50 pm
Rubik- We know Earl and he is a stand up guy. Dollars to doughnuts he doesnt have anything to do with it.
Relax, enjoy the victory and get ready for the general because West is no push-over.
July 4th, 2007 at 8:05 pm
“I am not throwing out any accusations”
Yes you are, that was the exact and complete intent of your comment.
“but if the guy did do this, the boy is definitely facing a butt load of slander suits”
Study some law, slander is what you and your friends were doing about Earl at the party (slander is spoken)
“from shealy, ravenel and campbell ( not to mention some potential problems from hinson)”
The flyer, though tasteless, inappropriate and probably desperate to boot, actually had true information about Rav. and Shealy and didn’t complain and false information about Campbell so it isn’t libelous either
July 5th, 2007 at 12:31 am
Not to mention unfair to Campbell. I may not have supported the guy, but the attempt to implicate him as part of a criminal conspiracy or a “crop” of criminals handpicked and trained by Shealy … not only was that ridiculous, but it was plain wrong.
July 5th, 2007 at 2:38 pm
actually, Silence, the flier didn’t have any true information about shealy. Shealy never pled guilty, and never was even charged with federal voter fraud. Those were the only two things the flier said about him, and they were 100 percent false.
July 5th, 2007 at 4:46 pm
It was a no contest plea and Rod received a 500 dollar fine in circuit court. The mail piece does “technically libel Mr. Campbell by placing him in between two individuals who have legal troubles thus creating that allustion that Mr. Campbell is guilty by asscociation. That could be construded as libel since it isn’t true and is damaging to his charachter and could have cost him the election.
It stoops to the same level as someone blaming Governor Jim Hodges for the ineptitude of the Department of Transportation under the leadership of Betty Mabry who would not follow the Hurricane Evacuation plan for lane reversal that was created by Carroll Campbell in a website called evacuatehodges.com.
While originally created, for the purpose of talking about hurricane evacuation problems-this website went on to blantantly accuse former governor Hodges of having ties to organized crime (video poker and the lottery) racists(confederate flag supporters and the NAACP) and the alternative life style community (gays and lesbians) none of which were completely true.
The creator of this website–Earl Capps. So the gang at Mysteries Inc just doesn’t buy the for a minute that earl capps didn’t have at least SOMETHING to do with this mail piece.
July 5th, 2007 at 10:34 pm
Campbell’s would have not been libel but false light, Shealy was convicted.
July 6th, 2007 at 5:43 am
what I was saying is that the statements about shealy a) that he pled guilty and b) that he was ever charged with voter fraud are not true. period. you think they were true, anon2? It’s a pretty easy thing to prove.
July 7th, 2007 at 2:02 am
We at the Kaolin Kronicle like Rod Shealy. He’s a fun guy with a great sense of humor. To be sure, he’s had candidates arrested for various crimes, but what consultant of any tenure hasn’t dealt with a few scoundrels? The fine art of political consulting sometimes skirts the edges of legalities and, on occasion, crosses over the line. Rod has taken his spankings like a big boy and gone back to work. You won’t ever hear him whining. So, once again, we like him because he keeps it interesting and funny. Keep at it Rod!
November 4th, 2007 at 9:33 pm
[...] Like we said in the Hinson/Campbell run-off, these last minutes desperate attacks mean one thing – someone knows they are losing. In this case, that someone is Phil Bailey and the South Carolina Democratic Party. [...]
November 5th, 2007 at 1:05 pm
[...] like we said in the Hinson/Campbell race , these last minute attacks mean one thing – someone’s [...]